A Hot Mess in Congress

Source: The New York Times

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The 119th Congress is a mess. Partisan gridlock strangles both houses even though Republicans hold thin majorities. Misconduct scandal after misconduct scandal keeps a bad light shining on the Hill.

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, a Florida Democrat, resigned from the House yesterday to avoid an expulsion vote. She had violated more than two dozen House rules, including campaign finance laws, according to the chamber's ethics committee. (She still faces federal criminal charges alleging that she stole $5 million in coronavirus disaster relief funds.)

Also out: Representative Eric Swalwell, a Democrat from California, and Representative Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican. They both resigned last week after women who had been on their staffs accused them of sexual misconduct.

And the House could expel Representative Cory Mills, a Florida Republican under investigation by the ethics committee to see if he, too, violated campaign finance laws. Mills has also been accused of assault and threatening a former girlfriend with the release of revenge porn.

A resignation would go down easier than an expulsion, said Carl Hulse, who covers Congress. "Members are going to be reluctant to oust anyone if it cuts into their numbers with the margin so thin, even if they believe the person deserves it," he wrote in an email. His subject line: "crazy congress."

Why is Congress such a train wreck? Let's see.

A hot mess

Since President Trump's return, Republicans have enjoyed what every ruling partisan wants: control of the White House and both chambers of Congress. A trifecta.

That kind of power supposedly greases the legislative machinery. But the Republican-led Congress last year hit historic lows for productivity, even by the institution's own dysfunctional standards. House members cast 362 votes last year, the second-lowest count in a quarter-century. And just 64 bills became law. It struggles with the basics: The Department of Homeland Security, which employs some 260,000 people, has been shut down for nearly 70 days because lawmakers can't agree on a deal to reopen it. As lawmaking cratered, our elected officials passed a record number of partisan rebukes to scold and punish one another.

Americans notice: Congress's approval rating has plunged to 10 percent, according to Gallup polling released this morning. Even the I.R.S. scores better.

Meanwhile, Congress has ceded some of its powers to the White House: Republican members did little as the president refused to spend funds they had allocated and federal programs they had created. The Constitution gives Congress the exclusive power to declare war, but the G.O.P. has blocked Democratic-led efforts to curb Trump's authority to fight in Iran.

Trouble for Republicans

Many Americans say it's time for a change. A year ago, it seemed like a pipe dream to hope that Democrats might retake control of Congress. Now they have a shot at capturing both the House and the Senate.

So far, everything is going their way. Trump's approval rating is down. Gas prices are up. Americans are angry about war in the Middle East. Recent elections have shown shifts of up to 20 points in Democrats' favor compared with the 2024 election that returned Trump to the White House. A blue wave isn't assured, but here's the math:

The House. Republicans have a five-seat majority (which includes one independent), so Democrats need to flip just a few seats (and keep their current ones) to win a majority next year. Kamala Harris carried nine Republican-held districts in 2024, and House Republicans hold 21 additional seats that Trump won by 10 points or less. Democrats are targeting Republican seats once considered out of reach. And in Virginia yesterday, voters approved a new congressional map that tips up to four more House seats toward Democrats:
The Senate. Flipping the Senate would require Democrats to win at least four Republican-held seats (while losing none of their own). Recent polls show Democrats tied or ahead in four states. In Maine and North Carolina, the likely Democratic nominees hold clear leads; the party has also recruited strong candidates in Ohio and Alaska.

Dysfunction junction

Possible expulsions, forced resignations, retirements, gridlock, shutdowns, bad polling? We went back to Carl to ask about the mood on the Hill right now:

Certainly the Republican mood is not good. To me, it's reminiscent of 2006, when the Republican majority entered the midterms under the weight of an increasingly unpopular war in Iraq and a cloud of corruption over Congress. Democrats won back both chambers.

The whole place is pretty much on pins and needles.

WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran* Trump said he was extending the cease-fire until Iran's "leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal."
* Trump's preferred strategy of coercive diplomacy isn't working with Iran. In the video below, our reporter David Sanger explains what the history of U.S.-Iran negotiations could mean for the latest talks.

Lebanon* Lebanese villages held mass funerals for the civilians and Hezbollah fighters killed in the war.
* Israel pulled two soldiers from combat duty and sentenced them to 30 days in jail after one photographed the other swinging a sledgehammer at the head of a statue of Jesus in southern Lebanon.

THE LATEST NEWS

Politics* Trump is working on a plan that would send some Afghans who aided U.S. forces to Congo, an aid worker said. These Afghans have been living in limbo in Qatar for more than a year.
* A year after U.S.A.I.D.'s death, fired workers have plowed through savings, cashed out retirement funds and moved in with relatives. Fewer than half have found new full-time jobs, former colleagues estimate.
* The U.S. sent a plane to Cuba to retrieve a 10-year-old American child the F.B.I. believed had been kidnapped by a transgender parent and her partner, potentially to undergo gender transition surgery.
* Tucker Carlson says he is "tormented" by his role in Trump's return to the White House.

Around the World* Ukraine: Officials have suggested renaming part of the Donbas region "Donnyland" to get Trump's attention.
* Africa: The pope's tour is skipping some of the continent's biggest Catholic nations.

Artificial Intelligence* JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo racked up billions in profits while shedding 15,000 employees between them. All credit A.I. with helping automate work.
* Florida prosecutors say ChatGPT advised a man as he planned a school shooting. He's accused of killing two people at Florida State last year.
* An elite Wall Street law firm has apologized to a federal judge for submitting a court filing full of A.I. "hallucinations."

Other Big Stories* Rainforests can recover from deforestation more quickly than scientists thought, a new study finds, with plants and animals returning to affected land after just a few decades.
* People have reported seeing far more meteors than usual this spring. Scientists attribute that to the natural ebb and flow of the cosmos, not alien activity.

OPINIONS

"Separation" tells the true story of a Honduran family living under the threat of deportation, in the form of a graphic novel reported by Jake Halpern and illustrated by Michael Sloan.

Jason Furman, Neera Tanden and Elizabeth Wilkins chat with David Leonhardt about why Americans are leaving blue states.

MORNING READS

A Turkish love story: After a forced confession and a death sentence, a Kurdish poet spent 30 years in jail. There, he found his voice and his life partner.

Your pick: The most clicked link in The Morning yesterday was a video about influencers promoting health benefits of nicotine.

TODAY'S NUMBER

13 -- That is the age in years of Bruce, a disabled kea parrot in New Zealand who uses a prosthetic beak he made himself and became the "alpha male" of his group by learning to joust. Really.

SPORTS

"Curse of the Mambino"? On April 9, Zohran Mamdani posed for a joyous picture with the New York Mets mascots. The Mets haven't won since.

N.B.A.: Victor Wembanyama suffered a concussion during Game 2 of the San Antonio Spurs' playoff series against the Portland Trail Blazers. The series is now tied 1-1, and Wembanyama's availability for Game 3 is up in the air.

RECIPE OF THE DAY

I like Ali Slagle's recipe for egg and cheese quesadillas, although I know if you make it yourself the quesadillas will mold to your tastes and abilities. You may come to flip the tortilla differently, use a different cheese or add some interior salsa or bacon. That's great. (Try it with duck eggs if you run into some.) Me, I top everything with crema and hot sauce, and I always make two at a time, in separate pans. Serve with sliced avocado and call that breakfast -- or dinner.

HONKY TONKIN'

The Longhorn Ballroom in Dallas opened in 1950, the biggest dance hall in Texas. It hosted Nat King Cole, Johnny Cash and the Sex Pistols before falling into disrepair and closing early in the pandemic. Now it's back, burnished and larger than ever.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS

Fish the canals of Treviso, north of Venice, and experience the joys of urban angling. (I sure have, here in New York.)
Watch Zach Galifianakis's "This Is a Gardening Show," which premieres on Netflix tonight. It's really earnest, not a bit.

GAMES

Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was brickwork.

And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Connections, Crossplay and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times and me. See you tomorrow.