The Actor Awards is the last major awards show before the Academy Awards, making Sunday night's winners in Hollywood our clearest indicator yet of who will take home Oscar on March 15. And with some of the winners -- looking at you Michael B. Jordan -- what was once a predictable race for the Oscar is now wide open in multiple categories.
Of all the major film categories at the Actor Awards this year, Male Actor in a Supporting Role is the one to take with a grain of salt. One of the biggest Oscar contenders, Stellan Skarsgård, wasn't even nominated for his performance in Sentimental Value, and frankly, neither was anyone else from that film. A complete snub across the board. With such a skewed field, predicting who will win at the Oscars becomes genuinely difficult.
With that said, Actor Awards winner Sean Penn for One Battle After Another is Skarsgård's biggest competition this year. Jacob Elordi can't be counted out for Frankenstein; he did take home the Critics Choice Award, but Penn has the most momentum in a film that's shaping up to be the likely Best Picture winner. If it's not Skarsgård taking the Oscar, it's going to Penn.
Meanwhile, Amy Madigan started the season as the frontrunner for Weapons, but she got slowed down when Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe for One Battle After Another and Wunmi Mosaku took the BAFTA for Sinners, and now she’s back on top after winning the Actor Award. But her victory comes with an asterisk worth noting. Madigan is an iconic character actress married to fellow beloved actor Ed Harris, and there is a lot of love for her in a voting body made up entirely of actors, which is significantly larger than the Oscar electorate. So the question has to be asked: did she win for the performance or the resume? To be clear, her win is warranted. She was incredible in Weapons. But who Amy Madigan is and what she represents in a room full of her peers can’t be ignored.
If there was any guaranteed races at the Oscars this year, it was Best Actor and Best Actress. Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme and Jessie Buckley in Hamnet have simply dominated awards season. Well, Michael B. Jordan’s win officially stopped that momentum.
The shock of the night was Jordan’s win for Sinners. The Outstanding Male Actor in a Lead Role winner was not only not predicted; going into the evening he had not won any of the major awards. His win slows down Timothée Chalamet’s momentum for Marty Supreme. What was once an expected Best Actor race is now wide open. (How fun is that?!)
With all the acting wins at this point, the only guaranteed bet to win the Oscar is Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, who has won literally every major award. It would be a shocking event if she didn’t win the Academy Award for Best Actress.
The Actor Awards don't have a Best Picture category, but Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture is the next best thing, and the winner tends to signal where voters' heads are when it comes to Oscar's top prize. And Sinners' win suggests that One Battle After Another's dominance this awards season isn't as ironclad as it seemed. Combined with Hamnet's Golden Globe win, the Best Picture race suddenly feels wide open. Good money is still on One Battle After Another, but don't be surprised if it's Sinners or Hamnet announced on Oscar night.
The Academy Awards air Sunday, March 15 on ABC and stream on Disney+. And if this awards season has taught us anything, there are still plenty of surprises left.