European Union and Ukrainian flags mark the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, outside E.U. headquarters in Brussels on Feb. 24. (Virginia Mayo/AP)
It's getting harder to overstate the strain in transatlantic ties. A week ago, the White House publicized a national security document that claimed Europe's leadership was leading the continent toward "civilizational erasure," scoffed at Europe's "unrealistic" expectations to repel Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and espoused a strategy of undermining the European Union as a political entity while allying with the Euroskeptic far right. The perceived attack on the E.U. was reinforced by various statements from Trump officials and allies, furious over an E.U. fine slapped on tech billionaire Elon Musk's X for failure to comply with E.U. digital regulations.
Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau railed against a bloc whose member states "pursue all sorts of agendas that are often utterly adverse to U.S. interests and security." Musk himself called for the outright abolition of the European Union. President Donald Trump, in an interview with Politico last week, said Europe's political leaders are "weak," "politically correct" and "don't know what to do."
The reaction in Europe was gloomy. The latest cover in German newsweekly Der Spiegel depicted Trump standing behind a knife-wielding Russian President Vladimir Putin as the latter carved into a map of Europe. "Two rogues, one goal," the tagline read. Kremlin officials had told reporters that Trump's national security strategy "aligned" with their vision.
The moment recalled the shock of February, when Vice President JD Vance delivered a speech at a security conference in Munich where he directed more ire at the European project than putative adversaries in Russia and China. "Now it's clear, Vance’s speech in Munich and the many tweets of President Trump have become official doctrine of the United States, and we must act accordingly," European Council President António Costa said this past week.
The Trump administration's ideological contempt for the European Union seems to run deep. A cadre of European leaders have wooed Trump, hoping for a kinder disposition toward historic allies and close cooperation on the quest to end the war in Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte even referred to the U.S. president as "daddy," much to the glee of those in the MAGA orbit.
But, amid reports that suggest White House officials may lobby certain European countries to even quit the bloc altogether, the charm offensives have not paid much of a dividend.
"There is a growing recognition that their strategy did not work," Nathalie Tocci, director of the Rome-based Institute for International Affairs and a former E.U. foreign policy adviser, told my colleague Ellen Francis. "It's becoming clearer that ... there seems to be a bigger MAGA sort of worldview in which Europe is identified as Public Enemy No. 1."
Still, while Trump and his allies may want to unravel the European Union, there remain many on the other side of the continent who desperately cling to dreams of joining it. The war in Ukraine has accelerated talk of accession for a number of countries, including for Ukraine itself. Officials in Brussels are pushing for a scenario that would see Ukraine's swift entry into the European Union in the wake of a peace agreement with Russia, and want the U.S. to pressure Hungary -- the black sheep E.U. member state currently dead against Kyiv's hopes for accession -- to not thwart Ukraine's bid.
The complexity of actually satisfying the criteria to enter the bloc means that Ukraine won't be a full-fledged member anytime soon, but its dreams of entering the European Union are both potent and widely shared. "The Russian war in Ukraine made Europe understand a very important thing," Montenegrin President Jakov Milatovic recently told me. "That the enlargement of the E.U. is also about the security of the European continent."
Milatovic leads one of the front-runner states for E.U. membership, which is joined by Albania, Moldova and indeed Ukraine. His victorious election campaign in 2023 was tethered to a promise of Montenegro's accession into the European Union by the end of his term in 2028; the country's government has embarked on a series of reforms, especially on the matter of corruption, that ought to pave the small Balkan nation's path to Brussels.
E.U. membership "would be a big sign that we have reached democratic maturity, certain levels of prosperity and stability," Milatovic told me during an interview in Washington last month. He argued that E.U. accession would be "an external anchor" for his country, "a road map for development" that helps Montenegro "develop itself to become an economy which is more prosperous, a country which is more politically democratic, and a country where the institutions are able to sustain democratic and economic development."
Whatever the White House's animus, the E.U. remains an institution that embodies an ideal to which many nations aspire. In Moldova, which operates in the constant shadow of Russian interference and meddling, recent elections maintained an incumbent pro-Europe government that's bent on bringing the country into the E.U. along a similar time frame to Montenegro. It faces both domestic challenges and potential opposition among some E.U. member states. In an interview with The Washington Post this month, Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi warned that any public "disillusionment" around his country's bid to enter the E.U. "will create fertile ground for Russian propaganda."
But Popsoi was bullish. "Moldovans will not allow anybody to hold us back as long as we are doing the heavy lifting with the reforms," he told me, stressing that the new government's mandate allowed for years of "political stability and clear political vision" that would bring the former Soviet republic into the bloc.
E.U. officials appear quietly optimistic, as well. "We have made significant progress with Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine," Marta Kos, the European commissioner for enlargement, said at a recent conference. "Reforms pay off, and that should serve as additional motivation for other candidate countries."
In some instances, the motivation lies in the prospect of not being able to be in the European Union. In October, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama chided an audience in London over the toll of Brexit at a time when his nation hopes to enter the European Union. "You left Europe because you wanted more investment. You have less investment," he said. "You left Europe because you wanted more happiness. Now you are depressed."