Taiwan has spent 15 months trying to secure President Trump's support amid unpredictable policies from Washington.
In April 2025, officials in Taiwan watched in shock as President Trump unveiled his "Liberation Day" tariffs. Taiwan was hit with a 32% rate, steeper than most other developed economies.
They felt blindsided. Just a month earlier, Taiwanese business titan CC Wei had stood in the White House and pledged $100 billion for a slew of new chip-making facilities in Arizona. Trump had called Wei a legend and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, which Wei leads, the world's most powerful company -- boosting spirits in Taipei's corridors of power.
The tariff shocker changed the mood. It sparked an all-hands-on-deck effort to placate Trump with a raft of trade proposals -- and more. Officials decided to sweeten the pot by offering to export the "Taiwan model" of high-tech industrial clusters to America. They called their blueprint the Golden Plan, binding it with a metallic-yellow cover.
Later they packaged it into a $500 billion deal, mindful of what U.S. negotiators had said: Trump likes big numbers.
Taiwan has spent a whirlwind 15 months trying to win over the most unpredictable American leader in living memory as he tosses aside decades of precedent. For the democratically governed island, the stakes couldn't be any higher. China wants to absorb Taiwan, whose defense hinges on American support.
Officials in Taipei hope Trump sees Taiwan not as a security liability but as a semiconductor ace in the U.S. quest for AI dominance. But no one in the Taiwanese capital can predict what will happen when Trump travels to Beijing, possibly in the coming weeks, seeking an elusive trade truce with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Could Xi, for whom Taiwan is a legacy issue, talk Trump into making concessions and emerge emboldened in his campaign to take the island?
In a February phone call with Trump, Xi urged caution on U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan. Trump approved an $11 billion package last year but, following Xi's pressure, other deals are in limbo.
Constricting the flow of arms would deal Taipei a heavy blow. Taiwanese officials say even a symbolic shift in Trump's rhetoric would hand Beijing a victory, advancing its goal of convincing Taiwan's 23 million people that America is unreliable and Taipei's capitulation is inevitable.
Robert O'Brien, a national security adviser in Trump's first term, said he thinks Trump favors the status quo on Taiwan. "The president's a winner -- that's how he views himself and how his supporters view him," O’Brien said. "He's not going to be the American president who loses Taiwan."
Few in Taiwan are as sanguine. Trump's actions, such as his insults against Ukraine's wartime president, Volodymyr Zelensky, have shaken public trust on the generally pro-American island, said Alexander Huang, former director of international affairs for Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party.
Taipei faces pressure to give Trump whatever he asks for, Huang said, "but without promises, without firm commitment to Taiwan's security."
The first indication Trump's second term would be bumpy came on the campaign trail, where he accused Taiwan of stealing America's chip industry and said it should pay the U.S. for defense.
Taipei wanted to get off on the right foot. In December 2024, weeks before Trump's inauguration, it quietly sent a national-security team to Washington to meet with Republican contacts and people they expected to be in the administration. Barely a week into his presidency, Trump threatened tariffs of up to 100% on Taiwanese chip imports.
Behind the scenes, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, or TSMC, was already in talks with newly nominated commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, about making more chips in America. TSMC had committed $65 billion since 2020. Lutnick wanted more.
He threatened TSMC over what he alleged were breaches of the company's U.S. contract, which, he said later on a podcast, contained "20 pages of DEI stuff," including requirements to hire "trans lesbian" engineers. He offered to "rip that stuff up" for a $100 billion investment, Lutnick said on the podcast. TSMC declined to comment.
TSMC's clients -- American tech giants -- were concerned about potential tariffs, with global chip-making concentrated in Taiwan. Riding the AI boom, TSMC decided to expand its U.S. footprint to a total of six chip plants.
The deal had downsides for Taipei. Opposition leaders accused the government of caving to U.S. demands, saying it risked weakening the "silicon shield" many people believe makes Taiwan too valuable to be attacked. Officials nevertheless supported the deal, hoping it would solidify Taiwan's standing with Washington.
They got assurances from TSMC that its most advanced chips would still be made in Taiwan.
Then came the 32% tariff. Officials worked late nights on their Golden Plan, fueled by snacks of sesame bread and mango.
Taiwan's trade team made seven trips to Washington for talks that were often tense. President Lai Ching-te was on standby in Taipei, taking calls at extreme hours due to the different time zones. After the wrap-up session mid-January, negotiators called Lai at 3:30 a.m. Taipei time.
Trade was only one of Lai's headaches. He was also pushing a $40 billion surge in military spending to win over American skeptics who argued Taiwan wasn't serious about security.
Among them was Elbridge Colby, a top Pentagon official known in Taiwan for his tough talk. Before he took office, Colby wrote in a 2024 opinion piece in the Taipei Times that America has a strong interest in defending Taiwan but can't do so if the cost becomes intolerably high. Taiwan's military spending was "borderline suicidal," he argued, saying it would be "immoral to put our troops in harm's way for Taiwan when Taiwanese leaders haven't done their part to ensure our doing so would not be reckless and futile."
In his confirmation hearings, Colby endorsed Trump's calls for Taiwan to spend 10% of its GDP on defense. It was an astronomical ask Taipei regarded as impossible, but Lai began laying the groundwork to go up to 3.3% of GDP, with a pledge to reach 5% by 2030.
In late summer, U.S. and Taiwanese defense officials met in Alaska to discuss what weapons Taiwan needed for its nightmare scenario: a Chinese invasion. For years, Washington -- and Colby -- had prescribed agile, "asymmetric" gear Taiwan could deploy to wear China down, rather than giving priority to tanks and warships. Taipei had gradually come around; mobile missile systems now high on its wishlist.
The White House and Commerce Department didn't respond to requests for comment. The Pentagon declined to comment.
After a year of hard lobbying, Taiwan won some victories. In December, Trump approved the $11 billion arms package. Earlier this year, Taiwan announced a trade deal that would reduce the tariff rate to 15%.
Taiwanese companies would pour $250 billion into America, and Taipei pledged credit guarantees of another $250 billion to facilitate a chip supply chain. In a January television interview, Lutnick described Taiwan’s investments as the cost of Trump’s protection.
But Taiwan was also getting mixed signals. In a sharp departure from the Biden administration, Trump didn’t approve hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of weapons transfers from U.S. stockpiles to Taiwan. After Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said her country could get involved if China invaded Taiwan, Trump advised her to lower the temperature.
More Taiwan-related decisions have gone up to Trump for approval than was the norm in previous administrations, a person with knowledge of the matter said. With Trump seeking not to antagonize Beijing, the U.S.'s recent national-defense strategy characterized China in strikingly mild terms.
"I understand that the U.S. doesn't want to be provocative in this region," said Chen Ming-chi, Taiwan's deputy foreign minister, characterizing Trump's strategy as saying less and doing more. "The U.S. support for Taiwan is real."
Chen pointed to the U.S. national-security strategy, a different document that underscores Taiwan's strategic importance and declares deterring a conflict over Taiwan a U.S. priority.
Defense ties have been seen generally as a bright spot in Taipei. So many American military trainers are on the ground they have become conspicuous, jokingly called "English teachers," though their presence remains a sensitive subject. America's Indo-Pacific Command and Taiwan's military routinely compare notes on the threat situation, and Taiwan's "erosion" strategy -- to deny China the ability to rapidly occupy the island -- emerged from that dialogue, the person with knowledge of the matter said.
Washington and Taipei are discussing ways to accelerate arms deliveries delayed by U.S. production backlogs, including a proposal for the U.S. to purchase the weapons from other countries to send to Taiwan, the person said.
In talks with their Taiwanese counterparts, Pentagon officials refer to a possible Chinese invasion as the "2027 scenario" -- the year by which Xi has ordered his country's military to become capable of seizing Taiwan. That is a readiness target, not a go date; it has become shorthand to convey the threat's seriousness.
U.S. officials raised 2027 in a January meeting with Huang Kuo-chang, the leader of a Taiwanese opposition party that has resisted the government's $40 billion special defense budget. The officials pressed him to pass it, saying Taiwan had only 18 months to prepare for a possible invasion, Huang said.
At the same time, they reassured him that Trump was using his personal rapport with Xi to ensure China doesn't invade Taiwan during his presidency, he said.
"And my question is, 'So why should we worry about 2027?'" Huang said. "'They said,'In case Xi breaks his promise.'"
Ahead of Trump's China visit, there is growing chatter in Washington that Trump could tell Xi the U.S. explicitly "opposes" Taiwan declaring formal independence from China rather than simply not supporting it -- a rhetorical change Beijing has long sought.
This nuance isn't important to Trump; China would use the shift to its advantage said Dennis Weng an expert U.S.-Taiwan relations Sam Houston State University Texas.
China hopes eroding trust America images China's gleaming cities change attitudes among Taiwan's youth said Weng . When visited China from Taiwan 1990s , Weng recalled , carried television relatives , poor afford one . Taiwanese people used feel sorry China , perception changed Chinese social-media platforms gain traction .
"They see beautiful Beijing , Shanghai , prosperity ," he said . "They don't see dark side ."