Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is slightly negative for the year, falling by around 5% despite making new all-time highs in early October. With what's shaping up to be a pretty rough November, the question of what usually happens to the big orange coin in December is likely at the front of many investors' minds.
So without further ado, here's what to expect next month.
This might not be the Santa rally that many are imagining
Seasonality data can reveal where investors have historically been rewarded for being optimistic versus cautious. For Bitcoin, the data show that December is, on average, a coin toss that's leaning slightly against you.
Looking at the coin's monthly returns since 2013, December's average gain is modest, around 4.8%. Big outlier years, such as 2016, 2017, and 2020, all of which saw gains in excess of 25%, significantly contribute to pulling the average up. In other words, a couple of blockbuster Decembers mask the fact that most have been lackluster or slightly negative; the median performance for the month is a decline of 3.2%. Through 2024, December has finished with Bitcoin higher only five times out of the last 12 years, meaning it has been in the red seven times.
The more worrying historical pattern that pertains to this year is what happens when November and October were also negative. In every year since 2013, when November closed in the red, December did too. And in 2018, the sole prior instance of October and November both seeing declines, December was another down month. So if November continues to see Bitcoin's price decline -- it's down by 21% in the last 30 days -- the seasonality data indicate that December will probably be another disappointment rather than a joyous Santa rally.
This is not a guarantee of any kind that December 2025 will see Bitcoin lose value. The seasonality sample size is fairly small, and Bitcoin is perfectly capable of ignoring its own history, especially considering that the asset is currently enjoying its highest-ever degree of integration with the traditional financial system as well as unprecedented usage by financial institutions. But if you are assigning probabilities about near-term performance rather than telling yourself comforting stories, the seasonal record argues for a lot of caution about expecting a clean year-end rally.
Weak winter months can be an ally for investors
When the near-term data lean bearish, investors often have the instinct to look away and wait for conditions to improve. That instinct is understandable, and it might be a good idea if the market's sky is actively falling, like during the crypto sector's flash crash on October 10. But with Bitcoin, it's often a bit backward.