Investing.com -- Quantum computing could achieve "quantum advantage," where quantum systems significantly outperform classical computers, around 2033, according to UBS Global Research in a recent note. However, the technology "has consistently been '5 years away' for the last 20 years," the report cautions.
UBS extrapolated quantum volume, a performance metric encompassing error correction and other factors, finding it follows a trajectory similar to Moore's Law in classical computing.
This analysis suggests quantum advantage, typically associated with 100 logical qubits, could arrive slightly later than some company projections.
IBM targets 2,000 logical qubits by 2026, while IonQ projects 1,600 that year, scaling beyond 40,000 after 2030, according to company milestones cited in the report. Google's Willow processor demonstrated in December 2024 that adding more qubits reduces rather than increases errors, a critical threshold for scalability.
China leads global public quantum investment with just under $18 billion, double U.S. public funding, according to European Centre for International Political Economy data cited in the report.
However, the United States accounts for approximately $7 billion in private quantum investment compared to China's minimal private funding.
UBS models potential market disruption showing 12% of global server capacity could become underutilized by 2035 under high quantum adoption, rising from zero in 2026.
The analysis estimates 27% of current server spending comes from biosciences, chemical engineering, and financial services—sectors where quantum applications may arrive earliest—according to Intersect360 Research data.
Under the bullish scenario, 50% of pharmaceutical server capacity, 45% of chemical industry capacity, and 35% of financial services capacity could shift to quantum processors by 2035. A conservative scenario projects only 2% server underutilization by 2035.
Near-term economic impact stems from encryption vulnerabilities. The brokerage estimates cumulative 2026-2030 market increases of 30% for IoT devices, 6% for smartphones, and 4% for PCs, driven by quantum-safe encryption requirements.
New encryption standards require key sizes up to 100 times larger and computation times potentially 10 times slower than current methods.
IonQ reported $43.1 million in 2024 revenue with 2025 guidance of $106-110 million. D-Wave reported $9 million in 2024 revenue; Rigetti reported $10.8 million.
Private companies including PsiQuantum have raised over $2 billion, targeting commercial systems by 2027.
Technical challenges remain significant. Trapped ion qubits achieve coherence times up to 600 seconds in laboratory conditions, while superconducting qubits maintain coherence for only 0.001 seconds, according to the report. Systems typically require 10 to 100 physical qubits to create one error-corrected logical qubit.
"Quantum computing has the potential to redefine processes and transform industries," the brokerage notes, while noting "progress has been slow and there have been many challenges." The analysis adds that it remains "too early to say" which adoption scenario will materialize.