With just 10 days to go before the Scottish Parliament election on 7 May, opinion polls suggest the SNP will remain by far the largest party despite being much less popular than at the last election in 2021.
Meanwhile, Reform and Labour appear to be in a close battle for second place.
However, there is still enough uncertainty in the polls to suggest the final days of the campaign could prove vital in determining the outcome.
To date, seven companies have conducted polls of Holyrood vote intention since the parliament broke up on 25 March.
On average they put the SNP on 35% of the constituency vote, 17 points ahead of second-placed Labour.
At 29%, the party's tally is less impressive on the regional list ballot, but it is still a dozen points ahead of its nearest opponents.
However, only two of these polls took into account the fact that the Scottish Greens are only contesting half a dozen constituencies - meaning that most voters will not be able to back the Greens on their lilac coloured constituency ballot.
That makes it highly improbable that the Greens will - as the polls have suggested - win as much as 7% of the constituency vote.
Given that the Scottish Greens support independence, we might anticipate that many of those who would otherwise back the party on the constituency ballot will switch to the SNP, bolstering their lead.
But while one of the polls that took account of the absence of the Greens in most constituencies put the SNP on 41%, the other reckoned the party would still only win 35%.
In any event support for the SNP is well down on the 48% of the constituency vote and 40% of the list vote the party secured in 2021.
Indeed, if the party were to win just 29% of the list vote, it would be its lowest tally on that ballot since 2003.
The nationalists, nevertheless, still have a clear lead because both the Conservatives and Labour have lost ground since 2021 too.
Support for the Conservatives, who came second at the last election, has fallen as heavily as that for the SNP.
Meanwhile, despite performing poorly at the last election, Labour's tally is also down.
Indeed, both parties are potentially heading for their worst result ever in a Scottish Parliament election.
In contrast, Reform, who won just 0.2% of the list vote in 2021, are now neck and neck with Labour on both the constituency and list ballots.
Meanwhile, the Greens, on 14% of the list vote, are seemingly heading for their best ever result.
The Liberal Democrats, with 10% on both ballots, seem set to record their best result since the party at Westminster entered into coalition with the Conservatives after the 2010 Westminster election.
Scottish politics now looks as fragmented as it has ever been - in tandem with developments across the UK.
Yet the SNP leader, John Swinney, has set out an ambition to win an overall majority.
He argues this would give him a mandate to hold another independence referendum - as happened when the SNP won an overall majority in 2011.
But is this at all realistic given the fragmented polling picture?
Although the system used to elect MSPs is intended to produce an outcome that is proportional to each party's share of the vote, well over half the seats - 73 out of 129 - are elected by first-past-the-post.
Under first-past-the-post, what matters is not how many votes a party wins but whether or not it wins more than its opponents.
If a party can win 65 of those 73 seats, it will have an overall majority irrespective of how the 56 regional list seats are allocated.
With a large national lead over everyone else - and with its support evenly spread across Scotland - the SNP seem set to win the vast bulk of the constituency seats.
But even so, on the current national polling numbers the party would seem more likely to win 60 seats than the 65 for which Swinney is aiming.
At this election some pollsters are undertaking 'MRP' polls.
These are bigger than conventional polls and the data are analysed to produce estimates of the likely outcome in individual seats.
And two of those exercises - from YouGov and Electoral Calculus - anticipate the SNP will win as many as 67 seats.
Both suggest the SNP will be helped over the line because of a heavy fall in Conservative support in the five constituency seats in the Borders and the North East the party is defending - thereby potentially putting all these seats within SNP's reach.
However, another MRP exercise, from More in Common, estimated that the SNP tally could be as low as 56 seats.
It suggested the SNP could find itself losing seats to the Liberal Democrats, especially in the Highlands, while the Greens could pose a challenge in Edinburgh and Glasgow.
It also suggested the result would be close in most constituencies, making the overall result highly uncertain.
Meanwhile, support for all parties looks potentially fragile.
According to Ipsos, 42% of those who declare a vote intention also say they might change their mind.
At the same stage in 2021 only 25% expressed that view.
It seems that none of the parties can be quite sure of what will emerge from the ballot boxes on 7 May.