High mortgage payments, higher child care costs and economic uncertainty are making some people rethink their plans on starting a family.
Growing up in Utah, where big families are part of the culture, Rilee Stewart and Brock Goodwin always imagined having several children. Ms. Stewart has four siblings and Mr. Goodwin has two, so having three or four children felt like the natural next step after getting married last year.
But that vision shifted once they settled into their new home in Mapleton, about 50 miles south of Salt Lake City. The 2,000-square-foot house came with a $20,000 down payment and a $3,200 monthly mortgage. That financial pressure, combined with other rising costs such as gas and groceries, made them rethink parenthood. They realized that even with one child, they would most likely need more space, and moving to a bigger house in their price range would probably mean leaving Utah and their families behind.
Mr. Goodwin, 25, works as a firefighter, and Ms. Stewart, also 25, is a nail technician. Adding a child would push them into living paycheck to paycheck, they said. Ms. Stewart said she would need to take on extra shifts, and Mr. Goodwin would have to give up hobbies he enjoys, like golfing. One of them might even need to stay home full time to care for a child.
After weighing all the costs, they decided not to have children at all.
"It's just crazy right now," Ms. Stewart said. "I have always told my husband, like, if we were rich, I would definitely have kids."
Across the country, many households are struggling to pay for health care, education and housing. Child care costs in most states have risen more than twice as fast as overall prices, according to the Century Foundation, a left-leaning think tank. Home prices, adjusted for inflation, have surged about 60 percent over the past decade. Grocery prices have climbed more than 25 percent in the past five years.
In turn, many couples who once imagined larger families are scaling back or deciding to remain child free. About three in five Gen Zers and millennials said financial concerns influenced their choice not to have any or more children at this time, or caused them to be unsure about it, according to new data from Credit Karma and the Harris Poll that surveyed adults ages 18 through 45. Sarah Hayford, the director of the Institute for Population Research at Ohio State University, said that while many people in their teens and 20s still reported wanting two children, falling short of that goal suggested that external factors were making parenthood more difficult to attain.
Although many factors go into the declining birthrate -- which has been in a slump and is at a record low -- economists say this generational shift could weigh on that downfall if it continues long term alongside other persisting trends. Those include people marrying later, buying their first homes at older ages and struggling to find jobs in a competitive market.
Recent research supports this idea. One study from Benjamin Couillard, a doctoral candidate in economics at the University of Toronto, found that since the 1990s, rising housing costs have played a major role in the drop in birthrates.
Another doctoral candidate in economics, Abigail Dow of Boston University, found that as the price of child care rose, birthrates fell as families chose not to have children, stop at one child or delay pregnancy. Yet it may take decades to fully understand how these choices will shape the economy as today's younger generations move through their peak childbearing years, said Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire.
In interviews with couples in their 20s and 30s, many said they wanted to reach key milestones before having children, such as buying a house, paying off student debt or making enough money to afford child care. Others prioritize travel or financial stability. All said they were unwilling to compromise on these goals, even if it meant delaying parenthood indefinitely or not having children at all.
The Cost of Having a Child
Child care is often the second-biggest expense a family faces, after rent or a mortgage, said Karen Benjamin Guzzo, a family demographer at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The lack of affordable child care has long been a problem, Dr. Guzzo added, and as everyday costs like groceries, utilities and health care rise, child care becomes one more weight on already stretched budgets.
The average annual cost of care for one child in the United States was about $13,000 in 2024, up nearly 30 percent from 2020, according to Child Care Aware of America, a nonprofit group. And as the summer approaches, camps and programs can add up to more than $1,200, on average, for the season. This cost alone is keeping three out of four families from enrolling their children in traditional summer programs, according to Boys & Girls Clubs of America.
Even before a child arrives, the costs rack up. A study by the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker published last year found that the average additional out-of-pocket cost for patients with employer insurance who gave birth was nearly $3,000 in the United States.
"If you have enough money, you can afford to do anything; you can get a nanny," Dr. Guzzo said. "But your average person, it's a big chunk of their budget. And so through your middle class and on downward, I think all of them are feeling that pinch."
Fatmata Camara, 29, and her wife have been building toward having a family for years. The high school sweethearts have been married for five years, working steady jobs and putting money aside for what they believed would be their first step toward becoming parents. With her wife working in education, Ms. Camara assumed insurance would help carry most of the cost of fertility treatments and childbirth.
Those plans halted when they learned in 2024 that a single round of in vitro fertilization would cost them about $25,000 out of pocket, more than triple the amount they had planned for. Insurance would cover the egg retrieval but not the implantation, nor the genetic testing and sperm they would need.
As they went through earlier steps, they watched the price of sperm rise to $1,975 per vial; they said it was a $300 increase over a few months. The couple living in Jersey City N.J., had already bought a few vials which helped but when they looked ahead thinking about I.V.F. and whether to buy more for the future the price jump was hard to ignore.
Faced with all of this, they made the decision to delay having children. They're now saving for two or three rounds of I.V.F., hoping to start their family by their mid-30s.
"I want to be in my position where my kid will be -- if they want to do activities and stuff, they can do it," said Ms. Camara, who works in fashion merchandising. "I'm not constantly thinking about money or where their meal is going to come from."
For Imani Menard, 29, and Austin Cunningham, 31, the decision not to have children came down to the life they've built and what it would take to change it. Married in 2023, they have shaped their relationship around exploring new places together, such as Japan, Bali and Morocco.
But that lifestyle has become more expensive. In the wake of the war in Iran, airlines have been raising prices and checked-bag fees to cover soaring fuel costs. The couple have felt it firsthand: A flight to France for a wedding in September cost them $1,600 round trip. Around the same time the year before, a similar trip was just $400 round trip, they said.
With a child, they added, going to that wedding would have been more difficult and meant fewer trips this year.
And at home, their expenses are already significant. The couple share a one-bedroom apartment in Manhattan that costs around $5,000 a month; rent in their building has only increased. They also care for a poodle they adopted last year; paying up to $600 each month for doggy day care while they are at work.
As their careers involve long hours with unpredictable schedules -- Ms. Menard is a lawyer and Mr. Cunningham an occupational therapist -- they would probably need to hire a nanny and would not be as present with their child as they would like.
"We talk about sometimes what that would even look like, having a kid in this world if so many things are changing," Ms. Menard said. "I just feel like it just doesn't make sense."