SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- It might take a full season for Notre Dame to get out of the hole it dug with those losses to Miami and Texas A&M, but riding three consecutive victories, coach Marcus Freeman believes the Irish are at least moving in the right direction.
Yes, that modest momentum created with back-to-back-to-back wins as heavy favorites could collapse at the next missed tackle or next failed fourth down. It's just that for the first time all year, it feels like No. 16 Notre Dame (3-2) has earned the right to believe things will come good. At home against NC State (4-2) on Saturday (3:30 p.m. Peacock only), Freeman will get to stress-test that theory.
"I believe there's a confidence that helps with momentum, that success brings you. But I don't believe you can rely on momentum to achieve an outcome that you want," Freeman said."And there's a little bit of fear, if we don't put in the work, we're not gonna get the result that we desire. And so we can't rely on momentum, but I think as you look back, momentum is a real thing."
It's easy to see Notre Dame is getting better as quarterback CJ Carr grows into the offense and defensive coordinator Chris Ash continues to turn down the temperature in his office. Even adjusting for the lesser opponents the past three weeks, Notre Dame looks more like it expected to look as midseason approaches, with next weekend's showdown with USC looming.
The Irish expect to get kicker Noah Burnette back from injury, but they'll be without nickel DeVonta Smith and slot receiver Jaden Greathouse. Tight end Cooper Flanagan could be returning soon from an Achilles injury suffered in the Sugar Bowl. As more than three-touchdown favorites against NC State, this weekend feels like the kind of game where Notre Dame should be out of sight by the fourth quarter, extending that feeling of momentum another week.
If that happens, these three questions probably need to come good.
Does Notre Dame go Wildcat because offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock sees a potential short-yardage solution or because he's already exhausted other options? It's all a bit murky for an offense trending toward record production with Carr at the controls. Just about everything works, other than when Notre Dame needs a yard on third or fourth down.
The Irish have converted just 7-of-12 attempts on third and fourth down when needing a yard. They're 1-of-3 needing 2 yards and 3-of-5 needing 3 yards.
The Irish attempted a modified Wildcat against Boise State, which led to a false start by guard Billy Schrauth and running back Jeremiyah Love getting stuffed on fourth-and-1 at the goal line. Love got stuffed on fourth down from the Wildcat against Texas A&M, too.
"It's a growing package, right? We had some success with it. And we didn't have success on that fourth-and-1 situation on the goal line. How do we keep growing it?" Freeman said. "At some point, if we gotta throw the ball to CJ Carr as a wideout, maybe we have to do that to get somebody to respect him. But yes, it's an evolution."
Opponents are 11-for-12 against Notre Dame on third/fourth down when needing just a yard, without the help of the Wildcat. While the Irish don't need to copy the opposition in short yardage, it's not clear Notre Dame knows what it does best when it absolutely needs a yard. And the Wildcat takes arguably the most talented Irish quarterback in a generation and turns him into a lead blocker while neutering a talented receiver group.
Notre Dame was always going to need a new go-to on short yardage this season. Riley Leonard's quarterback sneaks are gone. There's no dominant tight end like Michael Mayer. Figuring out that get-out-of-jail-free card needs to happen sooner than later.
It's hard to get a read on exactly what's better about Notre Dame's secondary since those bombs against Miami and Texas A&M. It feels like coverage got sticky against Arkansas and Boise State, although it's hard to quantify exactly how.
"After the Texas A&M loss, we knew that we became really not ourselves. So we just returned back to ourselves, became the people with our back against the wall and everything else," said cornerback Christian Gray. "What are you going to do? Are you going to fight back or are you going to die?"
If that feels a little bit dramatic, the improvements have been, too. The secondary allowed 254 yards after the catch against Miami and Texas A&M. The past three weeks, that total has dropped to 196, basically cutting the per-game allowance in half. Not coincidentally, missed tackles have dropped, too. Defensive backs missed 12 tackles against the Hurricanes and Aggies. The position has missed six tackles in the three games since.
Freeman pushed back on the idea that defensive coordinator Chris Ash cut from the playbook, although he admitted coverages have been simplified.
A healthy Leonard Moore helps, too. His two interceptions against Boise State made him the national player of the week defensively. Smith will be out against NC State, forcing freshman Dallas Golden to start or recalling benched sophomore Karson Hobbs. It will all be a stress test against Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey.
With a four-pick game at their backs, the secondary has reason to believe in itself, maybe for the first time all season.
"I feel like we're going to keep growing from there," Gray said. "We're going to be an unstoppable defense."
Notre Dame endured some version of this before when Mitch Jeter labored through a groin injury during October and November last season only to return for the College Football Playoff to drill the game-winning field goal against Penn State. There's just no guarantee that happens again with Burnette. At this point, Notre Dame just wants to get him available.
The North Carolina transfer suffered a hip injury after Texas A&M, missed the Purdue game, returned for Arkansas, only to get hurt again, then missed Boise State last week. Now he's expected back from NC State. How long he's available, that's harder to say.
Burnette arrived at Notre Dame with some lingering hip issues brought on by overuse in Chapel Hill, per special teams coach Marty Biagi.
"So, we've got to keep figuring this thing out. And nobody's ever going to be okay with soft-tissue issues saying we're unlucky. No, it's cause and effect," Freeman said. "He's in a really good spot right now. But he was in a really good spot a couple weeks ago, and then he got injured again. We've got to kick him. We have to."
Freeman has backed freshman Erik Schmidt and walk-on Marcello Diomede, although the staff’s actions hardly support the confidence. Notre Dame has staged in-week kicking competitions between Schmidt and Diomede in practice since Burnette got hurt, but the results have been a mess. Schmidt has hooked kickoffs out of bounds and had an extra point blocked last week. Schmidt’s only field goal attempt was a 31-yard miss against Purdue.
Can the Irish go all season without a reliable kicker? It tried it last season as Diomede and Zack Yoakam went 2-of-6 on field goals with Jeter sidelined. But that hardly feels sustainable for a team needing to run the table.
"The competition, it's not helping us the way that I would like it to," Freeman said. "We need to now make a decision and just say: 'Hey, you're gonna be the guy if Noah can't go; let's get ready.'"
Notre Dame's offense slipped out of gear last weekend, but it hardly drove off the road. Considering how Carr has played to date, it feels like a safe bet that the sophomore quarterback will course correct against NC State, whose defense shares statistical DNA with Purdue and Arkansas. The more interesting angle is the Irish defense. Was last week a blip or the start of a promising trend? The Wolfpack have enough firepower to force the issue even if they shouldn't be able to keep up with Carr and Co.