Polling shows Republicans leading Florida's governor and Senate races, but recent Democratic overperformance has raised new questions about how competitive some Florida contests may be in November.
Florida shifted from a battleground state to a Republican stronghold over the past decade, with President Donald Trump having carried the state by double digits in 2024 and Governor Ron DeSantis winning re-election by roughly 20 points in 2022.
However, Democrats secured stunning victories in two special elections in Florida on Tuesday night, adding to a series of recent wins and overperformances. Last year, Democrats flipped the Miami mayorship for the first time in nearly three decades, putting Democrat Eileen Higgins in office.
The fact that the party in the White House historically losses seats in the midterms, coupled with recent Democratic overperformance in special and state elections, has fueled optimism among some Florida Democrats.
However, Democrats face a difficult map to take back control of the Senate, needing to hold all of their seats and flip four Republican seats. Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress and are seeking to maintain that control after the midterms.
On Tuesday, Democrat Emily Gregory, a small business owner and first-time candidate, won a special election to represent Florida's 87th House District, a seat that includes Trump's Mar‑a‑Lago resort in Palm Beach County. The result saw her flip a Republican-held district that Trump carried by double digits in the 2024 presidential election.
The race also saw one of the few times that a Trump-endorsed candidate did not secure a victory, with Trump having endorsed Republican Jon Maples.
Meanwhile, Democrat Brian Nathan, a union organizer and Navy veteran who is also a first-time candidate, declared victory over Republican opponent, former state Representative Josie Tomkow, in a tight race to replace Republican Jay Collins in Senate District 14. The seat has been vacant since DeSantis appointed Collins to serve as his lieutenant governor.
The latest poll of the Florida gubernatorial race gave GOP Representative Byron Donalds a narrow lead over former Representative David Jolly, a former Republican running as a Democrat. Republican candidates include Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner and businessman James Fishback. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings is running in the Democratic primary.
However, it paints a picture of a more competitive race compared to 2022 or 2024, when Republicans dominated in the statewide elections. The poll was conducted by the James Madison Institute and surveyed 1,200 registered voters from February 13-16, 2026. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points.
In the general election matchup, Donalds led Jolly by five percentage points. Forty-one percent of respondents said they would vote for the Republican candidate, compared to 36 percent who said they would support Jolly. An additional 6 percent said they supported state Senator Jason Pizzo, a former Democrat running as an independent.
In a University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab poll of 772 likely Florida voters, Donalds also led the GOP primary with 33 percent, compared to Collins' 15 percent, Renner's 9 percent and Fishback's 3 percent, according to the poll.
In a hypothetical matchup, Donalds leads Jolly 42 percent to 36 percent, with 17 percent of voters undecided. Donalds also leads Demings 43 percent to 36 percent, with 16 percent unsure. The poll was conducted between February 21 and March 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to win the governor's race in November, according to prediction markets. Polymarket odds give Republicans an 82 percent chance.
Both forecasters, the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, classify the race as being safe or solid for Republicans.
The same survey from the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab found 66 percent of voters said they had never heard of Democratic Senate candidate Alexander Vindman, while 74 percent said they were unfamiliar with Vindman's opponent in the Democratic primary, state House Representative Angie Nixon.
In the survey, Republican Senator Ashley Moody leads Vindman 45 percent to 38 percent and holds a similar edge over Nixon, 46 percent to 38 percent.
In January, Sabato's Crystal Ball changed the rating of the Senator's race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. The Cook Political Report rates it as Solid Republican. Polymarket odds give Republicans an 87 percent chance.
Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday: "There is a very important Special Election tomorrow, Tuesday, March 24th, for Florida State House District 87 in beautiful Palm Beach County -- JON MAPLES HAS MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT!... "TO ALL GREAT PATRIOTS IN FLORIDA STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 87: GET OUT AND VOTE FOR JON MAPLES! Polls are open from 7:00 A.M. to 7:00 P.M. JON WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!"
Emily Gregory said on MS NOW after her victory: "Right when I started this nine months ago, I obviously thought it was possible. I think most people thought I was insane looking at the numbers... I'm still like, pretty shocked. We did it, we just did it."
Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said in a statement to Newsweek for a related article: "Mar-a-Lago and Tampa just flipped red to blue, which should have Republicans sweating the midterms. A Trump +11 district in his own backyard shouldn't be in play for Democrats, but tonight proves Republicans are vulnerable everywhere. State Democrats have now flipped a staggering 30 districts red to blue since Trump's election. Gas prices are spiking, grocery costs are up, and families can't get by-it's clear voters at the polls are fed up with Republicans."
Representative Byron Donalds said in a March 21 X post: "Thank you to the patriots who joined us last night at Mar-a-Lago for the 26th annual Palm Beach GOP Lincoln Day Dinner. Thank you to @realDonaldTrump for opening your home to us and for your kind words. With unapologetic conservatism, we will take Florida to the NEXT LEVEL"
Florida's primaries are scheduled for August 18, with the general election on November 3, 2026.