Investing.com - Stifel lowered its price target on Vail Resorts stock (NYSE:MTN) to $172 from $175 while maintaining a Buy rating on Monday.
The firm cited worse-than-expected second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with Resort Adjusted EBITDA missing consensus estimates by 9%. The company also reduced its full-year 2026 Resort EBITDA guidance to 3% below the Street-low estimate at the midpoint. The stock currently trades at $132.58, just 5% above its 52-week low of $126.16, reflecting investor concerns about near-term performance.
Management attributed the weak performance to the lowest snowfall in 30 years in Colorado and Utah. The company noted some positive signs from strategic changes implemented under returning CEO Rob Katz, including a continued commitment to its pass pricing strategy outside of targeted discounts for high-elasticity and conversion-rate guests.
Stifel reduced its fiscal 2026 and 2027 Resort Adjusted EBITDA estimates by 8% and 1%, respectively. The firm said focus now shifts to Vail Resorts' upcoming Investor Conference scheduled for March 16-17.
The firm acknowledged a challenging setup following the conference given the potential impact from softer 2025-26 window ticket sales on 2026-27 Epic Pass conversions. Despite near-term headwinds, InvestingPro data suggests the stock may be undervalued at current levels, with the company maintaining a dividend yield of 6.63% and trading at a P/E ratio of 18.58.
In other recent news, Vail Resorts reported its second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings, which did not meet expectations. The company posted an earnings per share of $5.87, below the anticipated $6.25, and revenue reached $1.08 billion, falling short of the forecasted $1.12 billion. Truist Securities responded by lowering its price target for Vail Resorts to $217 from $234, while maintaining a Buy rating, citing the company's total reported EBITDA of $418 million, which was 2% below their estimate and below the consensus. Mizuho also adjusted its price target for Vail Resorts to $200 from $202, maintaining an Outperform rating, due to lower-than-expected visits in Colorado attributed to historically low snowfall. The company updated its guidance to a range of $747 million to $783 million, which is below the previously anticipated range of $800 million to $820 million. These developments highlight the challenges Vail Resorts is facing, particularly due to adverse weather conditions affecting its operations.