Hardened Wall Street investors love their old sayings - and some of them actually work.
During the period after Christmas, for example, investors often look forward to a 'Santa Claus rally' that sends stocks higher through the new year.
Investment analysts have identified what they call the 'halloween indicator', which describes how stocks see elevated gains through the colder months of the year.
You've probably heard 'sell in May and go away' - the idea that stocks tend to stall over the summer, so it's better to cash out and sit on the sidelines.
History bears out the saying: Since 1990, the benchmark S&P 500 stock market index has averaged a 3 percent increase from May to October, versus a 6.3 percent average gain from November to April.
But this year, experts say blindly selling could be a costly mistake. A growing number of analysts are urging investors to do something smarter: stay in the market, but shift where your money is parked.
Financial analyst Mark Hulbert says rather than ditching stocks altogether, investors should rotate into so-called 'defensive stocks' for the summer of 2026 - companies that hold up even when the economy wobbles.
That move could benefit your 401(k) - give you all the peace of mind you need to enjoy your summer vacation.
'Sell in May and go away' is a very popular bit of seasonal market wisdom.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at financial firm CFRA Research, advocates a seasonal rotation strategy for the May-October period.
Financial analyst Mark Hulbert.
Defensive stocks are the shares of companies that give you stable returns no matter what's happening in the stock market or the broader economy.
Also called 'safe-haven assets' or 'non-cyclical stocks', defensive stocks provide your portfolio with stability because they are companies that sell essential goods and services like healthcare and food staples that people always have to buy.
Hulbert's strategy is supported by Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at financial firm CFRA Research.
Stovall proved the accuracy of the old market wisdom, showing that in November through April, markets really did see higher returns and lower volatility than the summer period in May through October.
He used the insight to build a special seasonal index of stocks that rotates between high-growth sectors and defensive sectors based on the time of year - and likes to recommend that investors 'rotate in May' rather than selling.
Instead of selling for cash in May, Hulbert recommends that you buy the shares of two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that mimic the performance of Stovall's index: the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR fund XLP and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR fund XLV.
These two ETFs own the stocks of hundreds of health care and consumer staples companies, and they charge rock-bottom annual investment fees of 0.08 percent - that's a deal for a solid ETF.
But often enough, the stock market is rocked by wild, unforeseen developments - viral pandemics and global financial crises, for instance - that disrupt the predictable seasonality implied by a down-home phrase like 'sell in May and go away'.
Research supports the idea that markets rise more in the November-April period of the year.
Consumer staples like Coca-Cola are a classic example of a defensive stock.
Charlie McElligott, a managing director at the financial powerhouse Nomura, warns there are two big factors to watch out for this year that could render Hulbert's 'sell in May' strategy moot.
If the energy crisis that has emerged from the conflict in the Middle East flared up again, markets could continue their wild ride from the 'gut-punch from the actual barrels and petrochem shortages,' wrote McElligott.
Sustained high energy prices would further heat up inflation, and central banks could panic into tightening interest rates - leading to his second potential problem: a bond market selloff.
McElligott warns that energy shortages plus central bank rate hikes would hamper economic growth in the US and the rest of the global economy, triggering a potential recession.
And for many investors, there's no safer place to be than cash when the economy dips into recession.