Voters dislike outsiders. Always have, always will. Whatever the jurisdiction -- school district, city, state or country -- meddling by outsiders tends to incite a backlash.
This is a basic fact of politics that anyone with any campaign experience knows. One would think President Trump would have learned that after New Jersey-import Dr. Oz failed to defeat John Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race, even after Fetterman's late campaign debate fumble.
And that begs the question -- did anyone bring up this fact before Vice President JD Vance jetted off to Hungary in an ultimately futile effort to boost Viktor Orban?
The whole escapade made no sense. Orban was trailing in the polls. Intervening risked humiliation in a loss, which is what happened. How could anyone in the administration think that Vance, who has no family ties nor speaks the local language, would sway the election? Did Orban even want the appearance?
If the idea was to stick a thumb in the eye of the European Union (which desperately wanted Orban to lose), that sure didn't work. Even worse, Vance went on this fruitless journey in the midst of a major military conflict and interrupted his new job exposing and fighting fraud -- something that is actually popular.
In politics, nothing succeeds like success, while losing shows weakness and fuels your opponents. For Trump, the view that he is a winner has been a significant asset for him. That Orbán lost so badly after the high-profile Trump support dents that winner image.
But the failure in Hungary is not his only political problem. In the past few months, it seems that the Trump administration is not so much pursuing poor political strategy, it's that it has no apparent strategy at all.
On Iran, it's hard to see the communications and political strategy. And make no mistake, the bedrock of any presidential administration is public support. Failing to secure that support undermines any policy goal, regardless of its merit.
Waiting five weeks before addressing the nation is incomprehensible. Trump should have done so immediately before or after the airstrikes began, followed by an all-hands PR blitz by the entire administration, its political allies and friends in the conventional and new media. That was the chance to seize the initiative and dominate the narrative with a clear set of objectives.
Trump does have a clear and sensible list of objectives, and those objectives are clearly stated on the White House website. But good luck distinguishing them from the day-to-day coverage. Team Trump is constantly detouring away from its best message into pointless rabbit holes. And that comes through in the polls.
In its April 6 poll, YouGov found that only 17 percent understand Trump's objective "very well." YouGov is a poll with a sample biased toward the Democrats, but when looking at just Republicans and independents, 41 percent of Republicans only "somewhat" understand the objectives and 30 percent "not at all," while only 29 percent understand "very well." For independents, a whopping 66 percent say they do not understand.
For a president with such a powerful ability to directly communicate to the public, those numbers are atrocious.
But the biggest mistake is ignoring the fact that fear is stronger than hope -- an axiom in politics. Just a single 60 kiloton device detonated at the surface on Tel Aviv would kill more than 125,000 instantly and generate radioactive fallout for hundreds of miles. An exchange with multiple detonations could easily result in millions of immediate deaths, fallout for thousands of miles, and potentially significantly negative climate effects.
As a matter of state policy, Iran has a goal of destroying Israel and has shown a determination to do so, funding and directing terrorist proxies and attacking it with ballistic missiles. Assuming the radical religious fanatics in charge would never initiate a first strike is an incredibly reckless risk. (Note: Israel has no such policy and did not use its nuclear arsenal even when invaded by Egypt, Syria and Jordan simultaneously in 1973.)
That Trump is not emphasizing the enormous danger of a nuclear-armed Iran -- and putting the actual number of potential deaths out front -- is inexplicable. Even a 10 percent chance of either a planned attack or miscalculation should be considered simply intolerable. Assuming any danger is self-evident and political support will follow is a fail.
It may well be true that Trump cannot help himself. His brash, improvisational style is too ingrained. But that doesn't mean it works. Having a strategy and consistent messaging is necessary, particularly when you are in power. Instead of amplifying whatever detour Trump embarks on, the rest of the administration should be counterbalancing with a consistent message on the big issues and objectives of the day.
The first midterm for presidents is normally very difficult, and the narrow Republican majority in the House is very much at risk. Trump could still turn things around with a satisfactory settlement of the Iran conflict. But political benefits will be limited as long as the public does not understand the danger Iran posed.
Winning in politics means delivering on popular issues, and that is difficult for any president. Without a solid political strategy and discipline is nigh impossible.
Keith Naughton, a longtime Republican political consultant, is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Republican political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania.