Labour MPs suspect that further damaging details about Mandelson's appointment and conduct could emerge, and that a cabinet mutiny could ultimately lead to Starmer's departure.
Keir Starmer's rivals in Britain's governing Labour Party have long had a motive for deposing their unpopular prime minister. The next few weeks may grant them the opportunity.
Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting, the two front-runners to replace Starmer in the event of a leadership contest, insist publicly that they remain supportive of his premiership and oppose a coup. Privately, their allies say they are poised to take over if the pressure on the prime minister gets too much.
The Labour Party has never rewarded naked ambition so readily as the Conservatives, and anyone appearing too eager to depose their boss risks scuppering their chances. So Labour members of Parliament say a series of events need to take place in quick succession to make the prime minister's position untenable: more shocking revelations about Peter Mandelson, what they termed an emotional response by Labour lawmakers to the May 7 local elections, and then a cabinet mutiny.
The first of these is far from improbable. Starmer has struggled to outrun his calamitous decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US, which has flared up with unstinting regularity since he fired him in September.
On Tuesday Philip Barton, formerly the most senior civil servant at the Foreign Office, is expected to give evidence to a parliamentary committee that may support the damaging line taken by his successor Olly Robbins, who this week accused Starmer's office of applying pressure to rubber-stamp his choice.
If Barton is able to produce specifics, that will redouble scrutiny on the prime minister -- especially since he denied the allegation in Parliament this week. Some Labour MPs also expect the premier to be called in front of Parliament's Privileges Committee. That would mean suffering the ignominy of emulating his nemesis Boris Johnson, who the committee found to have misled Parliament over the pandemic-era Partygate scandal.
Some MPs suspect there is more to emerge about how Mandelson was appointed, and how he conducted himself during his brief stint as ambassador. That could happen in the form of leaks to the media or in disclosures the government is due to make to Parliament in the days after the local elections, they said.
Starmer is so badly wounded by the revelations that further damaging details could be enough to take him into resignation territory, several MPs said, after being granted anonymity to discuss their private views.
Then there are the elections themselves. Expectations for Labour's performance are already at rock bottom given their dire poll ratings, with the party slipping to fourth place nationally in recent weeks. While a poor result is expected in the mid-term local elections, and some argue Starmer has a long time to turn things around, others wonder if the pain of defeat will make Labour lawmakers see Starmer’s leadership in a different light.
If pollsters' projections are confirmed and Labour suffers historic losses, it could mean close to 2,000 Labour councilors lose their jobs. MPs who might previously have been wary of changing leader could then be swayed by the experience of seeing long-serving Labour councilors and colleagues finding their careers at an end and blame Starmer for their ouster, the official said.
If that humiliation coincides with fresh Mandelson revelations, it raises the prospect that the so-far limited numbers of MPs publicly calling for him to go could suddenly grow, building a momentum that causes cabinet ministers to join in.
It would likely fall on the cabinet to tell Starmer his time was up, they said. As with Johnson, if cabinet ministers went one-by-one to Starmer and said they would resign unless he did, he would find it impossible to form a government and have to announce his departure. In that event, he would likely stay on while a leadership contest took place.
While Labour MPs have gamed out this scenario -- one official called it the perfect storm that's required for Starmer to go -- it is not the base case of most. What may ensure Starmer's longevity is that the lack of a clear plan to replace him.
MPs told Bloomberg that a leadership contest between Streeting and Rayner, who represent the right and left of the party respectively, would split it down the middle and risk tanking their poll ratings further.
Neither have an obvious policy platform, others note. While Streeting is said to have built a campaign team, Rayner’s takeover plans are described by lawmakers as less advanced, and she would face questions about the tax scandal that forced her resignation as deputy prime minister if she were to run before an investigation into her affairs had closed.
Andy Burnham polls better with the public and might have a better chance of uniting the party. But as Greater Manchester mayor he still needs to find a parliamentary seat before he’s eligible to stand in a leadership contest. MPs expect him to indicate after the locals that he will try again to stand for Parliament. However, one official cautioned that even he isn’t as popular with the party as many think.
That all leads most MPs to conclude the most likely scenario is still that Starmer muddles on through May. But that leaves the party in a bleak position: stuck with a leader few think has what it takes to govern, whose own MPs criticize publicly on a daily basis, but who they don’t have a plan to replace.